Predictive Microbiology and Risk Analysis
Cluster
Aim
To explore current advances in predictive microbiology
and risk analysis and develop improved decision support
systems to manage microbial food risk.
Rationale
We combine the practical experience of the industrial
members with the fundamental research knowledge of IFR
to give new insights allowing:
- Improved prediction of the behaviour of micro- organisms
under commercial conditions
- Understanding of the real levels of risk associated
with microbial growth – avoiding recalls and ensuring
the safety of your current and future produts
- Effective risk management and communication
- Real understanding of the behaviour and beliefs
of consumers in relation to their susceptibility to
food poisoning
- Identification of areas that require new research
Who Attends?
This Cluster will be of particular benefit to food
microbiologists and technologists with an interest in
food safety, quantitative microbiology, risk assessment
and prolonging shelf-life.
IFR
Skill Base Underlying the Cluster
Predictive Modelling
-
Anticipating microbial responses
in real food systems
-
Pathogen-specific expertise: Clostridium,
Listeria, E. coli (including O157:H7), Bacillus,
Yersinia, Salmonella, Campylobacter
-
Advanced use and further development
of microbiological databases; both national and
international
-
Prediction of pH in foods
-
Mechanistic modelling in foods
-
Mathematical modelling; including
the inactivation, growth and habitat domains of
micro-organisms
-
Software tools for analysis and
prediction of inactivation and growth rates, habitat
domains and the chemical composition of foods
Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment
-
Rational modelling with uncertain
information, e.g. health statistics, process models,
retail practices
- Identifying gaps in knowledge
- Framework to allow all stakeholders to access and
interpret common information (e.g. risks, costs and
benefits) using Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN)
- Meeting the standards maintained by international
agencies e.g. Codex
Understanding the Consumer
-
New approaches to risk perception
and communication by modelling behavioural decision
making
-
Factors influencing behaviour and
behavioural change – developing effective communications
-
Psychological research methods:
quantitative and qualitative techniques; experimental
and quasi- experimental design
Effective Experimental Design
-
How to get the most out of your
research and factory trials
-
Survey design: multivariate analysis
-
Design of experimental systems:
e.g. IFR Gel Cassette System
-
Protocol design: hypothesis development
The Cluster holds a series of one-day meetings and
workshops designed to explore and address scientific
and technical issues of concern to the industry. Some
of the subjects covered include:
-
Teach-in workshops on concepts and
vocabulary of predictive microbiology and risk assessment
-
Applying predictive microbiology
methods to a hypothetical new product development
issue
-
Using publicly available databases
and software packages to predict the effect of environment
on microbial responses to foods
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